Sunday Observations

The non-confirmation is still showing between the Dow, and the Dow Transports, however the Trannies have made two back-to-back solid bullish candles late last week. If the Trannies do make a new high, then the up-trend is confirmed according the the Dow Theory. This move would up the odds that the major Indexes are in a 1-2, 1-2, up pattern from the July lows.
Here is how a 1-2, 1-2 up would look on the SPX. Ever since the low made back in late November I have commented that the sell-off could of been a 2nd wave instead of a 4th because it was a sharp correction, and there was no alteration with the previous 1-2 wave. The one problem with this count are the internals, we should be seeing extremes in Breadth AND volume if we are really working on a 3rd wave up. The top of iii of 3, which we would be very close to now should have the highest readings of the entire wave structure, and so far, Breadth AND volume are declining. We are due for a top of some sort now, no matter which count is correct. The move after this top will be very important in determining the longer-term count, if we only have a mild sell-off, that wants to stick around this level and consolidate, then the 1-2, 1-2 up count gains the odds, because this would indicate a 4th wave correction. If we sell-off hard, on strong Breath and Volume, that ups the odds that we are entering into a larger correction.

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