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From E-T in Lieu of a Weekend Video

In the prior weekend video, it was noted that the decline was 64 days, and that seemed of little importance because it was not a Fibonacci number. It was suggested the decline could go on to 89 days, the next Fibonacci number. Contrary to some calling for the upside, the downside did occur – with another massive day of downside. Since that time there is some rather large upward movement, but we are still inside of 89 days. With that in mind, I took at close look at the ‘top’ rather than the bottom as most are trying to figure out. So, instead of the originally proposed w-x-y at the top, it occurs to me, that the original (i), (ii) count down, including the diagonal that was counted in real time in this chat room, did not make new lower lows. As a result, the top can actually be counted as w-x-y-x-z, a triple flat.

That makes the long and strong wave down wave minute iii (circle-iii on the chart, below). In order to waste more time, and confuse more traders, it is very possible that minute iv will be a triangle. If it turns out to be a contracting triangle, then it is very possible that minute iv will be less than or equal to minute ii, in length (blue arrows). More text below chart …

Potential Impulse Count in SP500

Potential Impulse Count in SP500

Then, minute v would make a new low completing an impulse wave, lower. A triangle fourth wave would make ‘excellent’ alternation with the flat wave at the top. Only a triangle or a zigzag (or multiple zigzag) can alternate with a flat in the fourth wave position.

Don’t think this scenario is a likely one? Price has just touched the 10-day SMA from the highs, is still below the 20-day SMA, and has formed a daily ‘doji’ candle at the high. Further, if you take the hourly upswing from the lows you’ll see it ‘currently’ forms a simple corrective channel upward – likely the a-b-c of the (a) wave of a triangle. If you study triangles, as Glenn Neely has, you find that it is the (a) waves of triangles that are both the shortest in time and most violent in price movement.

So, this makes a simple decision possible. Since we are near the top of the channel, the risk of an incorrect count is reasonably low until or unless price were to break the channel to the upside. (Not trading or investment advice – just a wave analysis.)

Good luck and best to all next week. E-T.

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